Tuesday, January 3, 2012

So you're telling me there is a chance!

That the Euro will survive, that is.
As the troubled euro marked its 10th anniversary this weekend, the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) said there was a 99pc chance that the currency would not survive the next 10 years.
The article in the Financial Post quoted the CEBR with some worrisome short term predictions, too:
“It now looks as though 2012 will be the year when the euro starts to break up,” the London-based CEBR said in a statement today. “It is not a done deal yet — we are only forecasting a 60 percent probability — but our forecast is that by the end of the year at least one country (and probably more) will leave.”
Personally, I think the CEBR is a little on the optimistic side.  I am banking on two countries departing the Euro this year and I'll go with a 99.9% likelihood of a breakup in the next five years.

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