Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Obama's VEWB is too low to win reelection

Is It the Economy, Stupid?

YearIncumbent/VPVEWB*Result
1956Dwight D. Eisenhower-0.6Won
1960Richard Nixon-2.2Lost
1964Lyndon B. Johnson3.6Won
1968Hubert Humphrey5Lost
1972Richard Nixon4.3Won
1976Gerald Ford1Lost
1980Jimmy Carter-4Lost
1984Ronald Reagan0Won
1988George H. W. Bush0.8Won
1992George H. W. Bush-1.3Lost
1996Bill Clinton0.5Won
2000Al Gore2.6Lost
2004George W. Bush0Won
2011Barack Obama-3.9
*Voters' Economic Well-Being = Consumer spending growth minus the jobless rate

Gene Epstein at Barron's came up with a simple predictive index for an incumbent's reelection chances.  Subtract the jobless rate for married males from the percentage increase in real consumer spending and you end up with the Voter's Economic Well-Being index.  Epstein looked at incumbents running for President since Ike in 1956.  He included the nine actual incumbents who and the four Vice Presidents of incumbents.  What he found was that, although a positive VEWB was not a guaranty of victory, a negative predicted a loss.  The VEWB had to be flat or positive for an incumbent to win.  Obama's VEWB last November was worse than any incumbent except for Jimmy Carter.  It has improved a little (though that may not last if gas prices keep going up), but not near enough to win reelection.

2 comments:

Brock Townsend said...

Let us pray. Posted.

2cents said...

Sanatorum already is.