Friday, March 30, 2012

There may be some empirical evidence that the SCOTUS will toss Obamacare

Michael Evans has looked at past oral arguments in front of the Court.  It turns out that the number of questions asked/statements made by the various Justices is a reasonably predictive of how they will vote on a case before them.  In essence, if a Justice asks more questions of a counsel, he opposes the propositions made by that counsel.  The counsel at bar in the Obamacare case were Verrelli for Obama on the side of upholding the law and Clement for the 26 States with Cavin for the private business groups that opposed the law on the other hand.  Below is a chart of the number of words in questions for the various counsel by each of the Justices.  Thomas rarely says anything, ever, but we know he will vote with Alito and Scalia to throw the law out.  If form holds true then, the SCOTUS will dump Obamacare by a 5-4 vote.  And that is directly in line with the observations of most of the pundits and legal observers that I have read.


Borepatch said...

I'd like to see a breakdown of questions by topic: mandate, severability,etc. I get the feeling that none of the Justices like the mandate, but may leave the rest standing.

2cents said...

I would have thought so for political reasons, but it appears as though they are in no mood to get stuck in the tar baby of trying to fix a flawed bill.