I have changed my mind

I may not vote for Mitt Romney, though I think he would do a passable job and sure as heck is better than the alternative.  I may well write in Representative Mike Kelly's name.

The $64,000 answer

The question, of course, is how much debt Obama has added to every single taxpayer in America since he took office.  You do the math.  On January 20, 2009 the United States owed $10.6 Trillion.  Today, the United States owes $15.8 Trillion.  Approximately 82 million individual tax returns were filed last year in which people declared some income.  Therefore, if each of those taxpayers were asked to pay an equal share in just the increase in US debt under Obama, he or she would pay $64,000 per taxpayer.  But don't worry, once Obamacare and all those green jobs kick in, I am sure it will go down.

Mexican border fence

I never had a problem with the border fence.  To be honest, I really did not care too much one way or another about it.  I do believe in LEGAL immigration.  The diversity and lack of historic societal caste constraints is what makes this country unique and has made us strong.  We all came from somewhere and we all came here because we wanted opportunity.  So I say to let the best and the brightest, or even the hardest working, come here.  If the fence makes sure that the process is appropriately regulated, then fine.  However, what I did not foresee was that Obama would trash the economy SO terribly that we would need the fence to keep the Mexicans IN.

Who remembers the oil embargo under Carter?

I do, though it was just before I started driving.  Long lines and limited quantities for fill ups.  And gas prices rose by 103.77 percent.  Under the Obama administration gas prices have now risen by 103.79 percent. 

Gee, there's a shock

It turns out we aren't buying electric and hybrid cars because it does not make economic sense.  You need to own and drive most of them for more than ten years in order to break even.  And the average length of time a person owns a car in America is 10 years.  So guess what?  We aren't buying into a losing proposition.

I wish HE were running for President

 

Above is Rep. Paul Ryan.  The Republican Congressman is the Chair of the House Budget Committee.  He just released a proposal to simplify the tax code, creating only a 10% and a 25% bracket, and to cur Federal spending by $5.3 trillion over the next ten years.  The cuts are made for the simple reason that we do not have the money.  Same reason I makes cuts in my own spending.  Seems pretty straight forward to me.

5,330,000 -- that is Five Million Three Hundred Thirty Three thousand

Jobs lost under the Obama administration.  Over five freaking million who are still trying to find employment that cannot.  The longest "jobs recession" since WWII.  Spin that all you want, but Obama is a one term President.  And the sad thing is that his ridiculous spending on unproductive, ill-conceived, stupid and illegal federal expenditures will curse the people of these United States for years.

What happens when you implement a failed social model with a centralized government overtaxing to provide too many "social services"?

You run out of money.  Just like the UK has.  Just ask Chancellor George Osborne.  Or you could re-elect Obama and find out on your own.

If you lived in Greece right now. . .

. . . your per capita Government debt would be way better than it is here in the US thanks to Obama.  What he has done to our country and our children's legacy is criminal.

Obama's five year recovery

Just ask him.  In his own words we are still a couple years out from a recovery.

Twinkie maker Hostess files for bankrutcy--this not a good sign

OK people, follow me closely here.  This is important.  Hostess, the maker of Twinkies, just filed for reorganization under chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code.  The Twinkie factory is in Natick, Massachusetts, so that is certainly not good for the local economy.  But that isn't what is so disturbing.  As we all know, Twinkies are the one food known to mankind that can survive a nuclear explosion.  This fact was popularized in the "da boom" episode (3rd episode, 2nd season) on the Family Guy which aired on Fox in December of 1999.

As I am sure you recall, Y2K caused a nuclear holocaust.  Peter Griffin, presciently and against great derision, locked his family in the basement instead of attending a New Year's Eve party.  Sure enough, at midnight the nukes launch and destroy much of civilization.  Peter, not surprisingly, gets hungry.  He remembers that Twinkies are the only food that can survive a nuclear explosion so he packs up the Griffin family and makes the trek from Rhode Island to nearby Natick.  Sure enough, the Twinkie factory is the only surviving structure.  The Griffins and humanity are saved.

This brings me to the troubling part.  Per my earlier post, the Iranians are getting closer to becoming armed with nuclear weapons.  If they get them, the nuclear holocaust will surely follow.  If so, what are we going to do without the Twinkie factory!?  Laugh if you want, but you ignore Peter Griffin's warning at your own peril.

Does anyone else see the irony here?

Compare:

Above is a picture of Antonio Perez.  Mr. Perez sits on President Obama's prestigious Council on Jobs and Competitiveness.  According to the Whitehouse web site, The Jobs Council's mission statement is as follows:

The President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness (Jobs Council) was created to provide non-partisan advice to the President on continuing to strengthen the Nation's economy and ensure the competitiveness of the United States and on ways to create jobs, opportunity, and prosperity for the American people.

However, according to the Wall Street Journal:

 Eastman Kodak Co. is preparing to seek bankruptcy protection in the coming weeks, people familiar with the matter said, a move that would cap a stunning comedown for a company that once ranked among America's corporate titans.

And he is on the Jobs Council!?  But don't worry, I am sure Mr. Perez is already well within the 1%, plus he probably has already committed to aggregating even more election funding this time than last time for you, Mr. President.

Cue the funeral dirge

For the Euro, that is, as is evidenced by this article in the Financial Times:

Almost $6.3tn was erased from global stock markets this year as the eurozone financial crisis reverberated across the world in the latter half of 2011, calling into question the future of the world’s largest currency bloc.
Global stock market capitalisation dropped 12.1 per cent to $45.7tn according to Bloomberg data, while the euro ended the year as the worst performing major currency after finally starting to succumb to the continent’s financial and economic woes in December.

"Worst performing currency.". OK then. That about sums it up.

Speaking of mowing the lawn

One way to avoid a charging alligator while doing lawn maintenance, would be to use this bad boy and out run him:

Craftsman has introduced its new CTX line of garden tractors which have everything from cup holders to power streering.  They have a top end of 8 mph (OK, maybe not fast enough to out run a charging gator, but still fast for a mower).  In fact, Craftsman is introducing the new line at this years Detroit Auto Show.  Of course, some of the purists are objecting:

"It's an automobile show, stupid, not motorcycles or garden implements," former General Motors Co product czar Bob Lutz said. "What's next? Plumbing and bathroom fixtures? A Toto-toilet stand? An Art Van furniture stand?"

Come on!  That bad boy can do eight miles per hour.  Personally, my concern is a bit different about having Craftsman, a division of Sears, enter the Detroit Auto Show.  In light of the announced closures of many Sears stores, does this move foreshadow the federal government spending more of my money to prop up Sears as it did Chrysler and GM?

Excuse me, could you just advance me a little more--say $1.2 Trillion

That is what Obama is going to ask Congress this week.  The current debt limit is around $15 Trillion and Obama wants to raise it by almost 10%.  In one year.  When we can't pay for the debt we have.  And it is crushing our economy's efforts to recover.  Plus our poor kids will have to pay it off instead of enjoying the fruits of their own hard work.  Someone has to stop this guy in November.  I don't care who, just someone.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House plans to ask Congress for an increase in the debt limit before the end of the week, according to a senior Treasury Department official.

The debt limit is projected to fall within $100 billion of the current cap by December 30. President Barack Obama is expected to ask for additional borrowing authority to increase the limit by $1.2 trillion.

Under the new budget, Congress can only vote to block the debt-ceiling extension with a disapproval resolution. Lawmakers have 15 days within receiving the request to vote down the debt limit increase.

The debt limit currently stands at $15.194 trillion and would increase to $16.394 trillion with the request.

Suck it up Washington before a crisis out of your control defines our fiscal policy

Robert Samuelson at Newsweek makes a couple of good points in his article entitled A Country in Denial About Its Fiscal Future.  During the past half century, the percentage of the federal budget paid out to individuals (e.g. Medicare) has more than doubled from 26% to 66%.  At the same time, Military spending has been cut more than in half from 52% to 20%, so it is easy to see where the shifted resources came from.  Amazingly, as a percentage of GDP, the federal tax burden has remained about the same (17.8% in 1960 and 18.5% today).  The problem is that we cannot cut the non-individual services much more at all.  So something has got to give if the boys in Washington keep on the same trajectory.  Samuelson puts it well:

We are shifting from "give away politics" to "take away politics." Since World War II, presidents and Congresses have been in the enviable position of distributing more benefits to more people without requiring ever-steeper taxes. Now, this governing formula no longer works, and politicians face the opposite: taking away -- reducing benefits or raising taxes significantly -- to prevent government deficits from destabilizing the economy. It is not clear that either Democrats or Republicans can navigate the change.

So what happens if they cannot navigate the change?  It will be imposed upon them and that is not likely to result in a lot of great alternatives.

What happens when you over regulate and over tax businesses?

They leave.  In California's case, they leave big time.  Even if they are making money.  Take, for example, Waste Connections, a $3.6-billion company formerly located in the Sacremento area, but relocating to Houston.  Waste Connections is part of a clear trend.  According to a Fox News survey, 2,500 employers, accounting for 109,000 jobs, have left California in the past four years.  And many of them were making money.  Why did they leave, then?  To make more money, particularly in the long term.  It is costly to up and move, but businesses will make the outlay if it ensures long term profitabily.  As the Orange County Register points out in an Op Ed, "[t]he California Democratic Party's attitude long has been that businesses are basically trying to rip off the public, and the source of all wealth and advancement can be found in the public sector."   The response to the news by the Senate President upon hearing of the exit of Waste Connections, one of the State's larger employers, says it all:

State Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, gave these clueless and snarky remarks in response to the news: "In this instance you have a company that is, in fact, profitable, making significant revenue gains in 2011 and 2010. That doesn't speak to a bad business climate here in California when a good company is able to thrive in that way. So whatever Mr. Middelstaedt's (company CEO) reasons are to leave the great state of California, I know I'm pushing back."

If you do not realize you have a problem, let alone that you are the problem, it is tough to fix the problem.

Obama is trying to beat the war drums of class warfare to get elected, but the electorate is too smart.

Graph of US quarterly data (not annualized) from 1947 through 2002 estimates a form of the difference version of Okun's law: %Change GNP = .856 - 1.827*(Change Unemployment Rate). R^2 of .504. Differences from other results are partly due to the use of quarterly data.

Charles Lane's Op Ed in the Washington Post entitled "Obama's simplistic view of income inequality" very much soft pedalled the issue.  It is patently obvious to me that Obama knows his only hope for re-election is to fan the flames of class warfare: it's unfair for someone to have more than you do.  He fired the opening salvo in Osawatomie, Kansas on December 6.  His logic is simple.  If the majority of the electorate is below the median income line, then promise that you will take away from the (fewer) people above the median income line.  Easy math shows that he is trying to buy the votes of the greater number at the expense of the lesser number.  Lane kind of skirts that issue, but he correctly postulates that the Majority of Americans are Okunites and  cites recent polling by Gallup that showed the majority of the people don't care how well the upper echelons of the income brackets do as long as they prosper too:

Maybe Americans are Okunites — as in Arthur Okun, the late Yale economist and author of the 1975 book, “Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff.”
Okun saw free markets as a source of unparalleled human progress — and of big gaps between rich and poor. Indeed, he argued, markets are efficient partly because they distribute economic rewards unevenly. Government should try to smooth out income stratification, but such efforts risk undermining incentives to work and invest.
Hence the “big trade-off”: channeling income from rich to poor, Okun wrote, was like trying to carry water in a leaky bucket. He wanted to move money from rich to poor without “leaking” so much economic growth that the whole process became self-defeating.
The American public intuitively shares Okun’s concerns. Consider the responses to another question in the Gallup poll. Asked to rate the importance of alternative federal policies, the public saw both economic growth and redistribution as worthy objectives — but put the former well ahead of the latter. Some 82 percent said growth was either “extremely” or “very” important; only 46 percent said “reduc[ing] the income and wealth gap between rich and poor” was “extremely” or “very” important.
In short, the public wants fairness but retains a healthy skepticism about the federal government’s ability to achieve it.

I'll put it another way.  I don't care if the top 1% pay no taxes if my real net income goes up along the way.  Apparently, most Americans agree with me.

Are you an ex-pat Brit in Spain?



If so, then you should take great solace from the fact that your Foreign Minister is on the ball and has foresight.  But that is about all you can take much solace in.  An article in the Mirror outlines deep concerns about what will happen to you if the Euro collapses.  It seems as though the Foreign Office has begun drawing up plans for at best illiquid and at worst destitute citizens who have their entire life savings frozen (if not wiped out) when the inevitable run on the Spanish banks starts with the currency collapse:

The drastic proposals emerged as a former Security Minister warned expats could be left stranded and destitute by the break-up of the single currency.
Brits who invested their savings in their adopted countries may not be able to withdraw cash and could even lose their homes if banks call in loans, worried ministers are warning.
The Foreign Office is preparing to bring them back from Spain and Portugal if the two countries are forced out of the euro, triggering a banking collapse

Since there are about a million ex-pat Brits in Spain (and another million total in the other Eurozone countries), the government is right to worry.  They may need to deal with all of the suddenly penniless people sleeping in airports or elsewhere with no access to money and no way to get home.  Planes, boats and quick cash loans are all being bandied about.  By the way, 10 Spanish banks were downgraded last week amid fears that the crisis had already spiralled out of control.

Manufacturing jobs are making a come back in America

For once I may have been ahead of the curve. With prosperity wages rise. And that has happened (and continues to happen) in China. Great for the up and coming Chinese workers, but with the higher labor costs it is increasingly less competitive to buy imported goods than to produce them domestically. On top of the increasingly anti-competitive Chinese manufacturing sector, other countries, such as Germany, Brazil and Japan, that traditionally have strong capabilities to produce goods, are battling numerous headwinds of their own. On top of all that, the big jump in petroleum prices has driven a huge boom in domestic energy production, largely through tapping our gas fields. The net effect is that U.S. manufacturing has been growing to the point of almost being in a boom. Walter Russell Mead puts it very concisely:

There are still obstacles to overcome: Growth in manufacturing is largely attributable to new discoveries of and better methods of extracting natural gas and oil. These are not the Solyndra style subsidized and government planned “green jobs” our social and cultural betters somehow assumed would drive the return of American manufacturing, but they are jobs nonetheless.
Another problem is that it is becoming increasingly difficult for American manufacturers to recruit skilled labor. Manufacturing has grown increasingly technical but the supply of people with the ability and energy to operate heavy machinery hasn’t increased. We’ve got to get better at helping young people who don’t much care for academics to get the training they need to cash in on the brown jobs boom.  For a lot of the millennial generation, these brown jobs are their best path to a middle class life; we need a pro-brown jobs government that sees these jobs as a blessing not an eyesore.

I think maybe the Republican candidate who first realizes, and then embraces, the new era of American manufacturing will win and in the end we will prosper. The best way out from under the crushing debt that the current administration has buried us under is to grow the economy to support and ultimately satisfy those obligations.